A decline in demand could spoil plans for a government-funded child-care facility.
CHEYENNE - Updated figures applied to a three-year-old child-care study now project a much slower growth in local day-care needs.
That may punch a hole in the case for a government-funded day-care center for 182 children in the Cheyenne Business Parkway.
The Wyoming Business Council spent $8,000 to update a 2006 study to help the board decide if the Laramie County Early Childhood Education Center should get a $3 million state grant.
The money would pay for the building, but a nonprofit would operate it, and a joint powers board would govern it. Once open, it would seek accreditation and ultimately offer extended hours.
On Thursday, the Business Council meets in Kemmerer to vote on the grant for the second time.
In May, the board approved the grant and shipped it off to the state's top five elected officials for final approval.
But after local day-care providers said this would hurt their business, the State Loan and Investment Board tabled it, asking for more information.
Originally, the 2006 Wyoming Workforce Child Care Needs Assessment said demand would rise by 2,195 children in 2010.
However, the 2009 Laramie County Child Care Needs Study says supply has outpaced demand in these past three years:
- Since 2006, local day cares have added 1,102 slots.
- As of second quarter 2009, Cheyenne had 4,104 licensed day-care spots, with 3,732 enrollees.
- The study predicts that demand will increase by 98 slots a year from now.
Shawn Reese of the Wyoming Business Council says this report will play an important role in the staff's recommendation to the board. He's the director of Investment Ready Communities Division.
"We want to see if the business model is still sound with these new numbers," Reese said. "Would the business be able to (be self-sufficient) with fewer children than anticipated?"
But Pedersen Planning Consultants says in the report that it changed the methodology. This time, the it didn't factor in affordability.
However, it did have better enrollment data than it did in 2006, thus this update is more reliable, the report says. The economic downturn also had an impact on demand.
Supporters of the center are skeptical of the new data and feel the change in methodology was politically motivated.
"When you change the data, pretty incredible things start to happen," said Rod Hottle, interim director of the Early Education Partnershipboard, the group that seeks the grant. "It's more like apples to oranges than apples to apples."
The drastic change now "taints" the entire study, he added, which has been used by other communities for similar grants.
They also point to a recent survey by Cheyenne LEADS, the city and county's economic development corporation, and the Greater Cheyenne Chamber of Commerce. Almost two-thirds of respondents said having a nationally accredited early education program would have a "positive" effect on recruiting and retaining employees. (The remainder responded "neutral.")
Ken Dugas is an accountant whose firm has grown from 45 to 70 employees in the last six years and has often had to recruit out of state. He also sits on the Early Education Partnership board.
"My employees are constantly speaking to the fact that they're not finding the quality child care they need and want for their children," Dugas said.
Last week, he said, he lost a recruit when he caught wind of the state's falling ACT scores.
Tim Thorson, Laramie County grants manager, said the reason for the Early Education Partnership is "not just about slots." It's about providing a career path for early education workers, making Cheyenne competitive by bringing a nationally accredited program.